Fukushima

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Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster Wikipedia

Fukushima nuclear accident J.M.K.C. Donev et al.; University of Calgary Energy Education; 3 Sep 2015

Five Years Later, Cutting Through the Fukushima Myths Andrew Karam; Popular Mechanics; 11 Mar 2016

Radiation expert Andrew Karam, who covered the disaster for Popular Mechanics in 2011 and later traveled to study the site, explains everything you need to know about Fukushima's legacy and danger five years later.
March 11, 2011 was a day of unimaginable tragedy in northern Japan, a tragedy exacerbated by the reactor meltdowns and release of contamination. But the nuclear part of this horrible day was, if the longest-lasting, certainly the least lethal event. Yet it's the part that still engenders so much fear. With the fifth anniversary of the Fukushima accident upon us this month, let's take a look at where things stand today with recovering from this calamity, and what might be happening next.

Fukushima: Perspective from a Reactor Operator on 3/11 Seven Years Later Heather; Mothers for Nuclear; 10 Mar 2018

What was the fallout from Fukushima? Fred Pearce; The Observer; 3 Jun 2018

Shunichi Yamashita knows a lot of about the health effects of radiation. But he is a pariah in his home country of Japan, because he insists on telling those evacuated after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident that the hazards are much less than they suppose. Could he be right?

Radioactive Glass Beads May Tell the Terrible Tale of How the Fukushima Meltdown Unfolded Andrea Thompson; Scientific American; 11 Mar 2019

The microscopic particles unleashed by the plant’s explosions are also a potential environmental and health concern

Radioactivity and radiation effects

Radioactivity monitoring around Fukushima

graphics and tables from atmc.jp

Radiation effects from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster Wikipedia

Politicisation and political effects

The world has forgotten the real victims of Fukushima Michael Hanlon; Daily Telegraph; 21 Feb 2012

A natural disaster that cost the lives of thousands of people was ignored in favour of a nuclear 'disaster’ that never was, argues Michael Hanlon.

Global fallout: Did Fukushima scupper nuclear power? Richard Black, Environment correspondent; BBC News; 10 Mar 2012

Health effects

WHO

Health consequences of Fukushima nuclear accident WHO news Room; 10 March 2016

  • What happened?
  • What were the main radionuclides to which people were exposed?
  • What levels of radiation have people been exposed to?
  • What were the main public health consequences of the disaster?
  • What are the health implications of the Fukushima Daiichi NPS (FDNPS) nuclear accident?
  • Is there a risk of radiation-induced thyroid cancer among children of Fukushima prefecture?
  • Is there any risk from radioactive food contamination in Japan today?
  • What are the public health lessons learned from the response to Fukushima?
  • What was WHO response?
  • What is being done to mitigate the public health impact of the Fukushima accident?
+ links to other documents

Global report on Fukushima nuclear accident details health risks World Health Organisation; 28 Feb 2013

A comprehensive assessment by international experts on the health risks associated with the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) disaster in Japan has concluded that, for the general population inside and outside of Japan, the predicted risks are low and no observable increases in cancer rates above baseline rates are anticipated.

FAQs: Fukushima Five Years On World Health Organisation

UNSCEAR

"The Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power station accident / UNSCEAR's assessments of levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident after the 2011 great East-Japan earthquake and tsunami" United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation

On 11 March 2011, the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant suffered major damage from the failure of equipment after the magnitude 9.0 great east-Japan earthquake and subsequent tsunami. It was the largest civilian nuclear accident since the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Radioactive material was released from the damaged plant and tens of thousands of people were evacuated.

In May 2011, the Committee embarked upon a two-year assessment of the levels and effects of radiation exposure from the accident. It reported its findings to the General Assembly in October 2013 ( A/68/46), and a detailed publication titled 'Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident after the 2011 great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami' with the supporting scientific data and evaluation was issued online on 2 April 2014 [ English] [ Japanese].

The main focus of the UNSCEAR 2013 Report was on assessing the exposure to radiation of various groups of the population, and the implied effects in terms of radiation-induced risks for human health and the environment. The population groups considered included residents of the Fukushima Prefecture and other prefectures in Japan; and workers, contractors and others who were engaged in the emergency work at or around the accident site. The environmental assessment addressed marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems.

Geraldine Thomas

Fukushima - Five Years On Clinical Oncology; Edited by Gerry Thomas; Apr 2016

edition of journal devoted to studies of Fukushima

Is Fukushima's exclusion zone doing more harm than radiation? Rupert Wingfield-Hayes; BBC; 10 Mar 2016

includes interview with Professor Geraldine Thomas of Imperial College

Others

Radiation effects from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster Wikipedia

There is dispute about the neutrality of this article

The Effects of Fukushima Linger After Five Years - But Not From Radiation Richard Martin; MIT Technology Review; 10 Mar 2016

Norwegian study

Global transport of Fukushima-derived radionuclides from Japan to Asia, North America and Europe. Estimated doses and expected health effects Nikolaos Evangeliou, Andreas Stohl, Yves Balkanski; Geophysical Research Abstracts; 2017

An attempt to assess exposure of the population and the environment showed that the effective dose from gamma irradiation during the first 3 months was estimated between 1−5 mSv in Fukushima and the neighbouring prefectures. In the rest of Japan, the respective doses were found to be less than 0.5 mSv, whereas in the rest of the world it was less than 0.1 mSv. Such doses are equivalent with the obtained dose from a simple X-ray; for the highly contaminated regions, they are close to the dose limit for exposure due to radon inhalation (10 mSv). The calculated dose rates from radiocesium exposure on reference organisms ranged from 0.03 to 0.18 µGy h−1, which are 2 orders of magnitude below the screening dose limit (10 µGy h−1) that could result in obvious effects on the population. However, monitoring data have shown that much higher dose rates were committed to organisms raising ecological risk for small mammals and reptiles in terms of cytogenetic damage and reproduction.

Fukushima's Meltdown Gave Every Human on Earth 1,000 Bananas' Worth of Radiation MIKE MCRAE; Science Alert; 8 MAY 2017

Assuming you've been living on Earth since the nuclear reactor at Fukushima in Japan was struck by a tsunami in March 2011, there's a good chance you copped about 1,000 bananas' worth of radiation over the past six years as a result of the meltdown.

That's what the Norwegian Institute for Air Research calculated, based on how far two radioactive isotopes of caesium have spread, putting the dosage for most people outside Japan at less than 0.1 millisievert – also equivalent to receiving one X-ray.

Of course, if you happened to be a little closer to the event – say, in Japan – the average dose over the few years that followed was closer to 0.5 millisieverts, which isn't even close to what you'd get if you underwent a computed tomography (CT) scan in hospital.

Thyroid cancer and effects of screening

Lessons from Fukushima: Latest Findings of Thyroid Cancer After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident Shunichi Yamashita, Shinichi Suzuki, Satoru Suzuki, Hiroki Shimura, Vladimir Saenko

The accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant caused a biased risk perception, which is now a pressing social problem similar to that observed after Chernobyl. Consequently, the association between radiation and the thyroid has reminded people of the reiteration of Chernobyl and brought about a simplistic way of assuming that the high incidence of thyroid cancers has been caused by radiation exposure. This, in turn, has further augmented excessive anxiety, worries, and wrong interpretations of the results of elaborate large-scale ultrasound thyroid screening, having a psychological and mental impact on those exposed to radiation.

Epidemic of fear Dennis Normile; Science; 4 Mar 2016 (paywalled)

CANCER RATES SPIKED AFTER FUKUSHIMA. BUT DON'T BLAME RADIATION Sarah Fallon; Wired; 9 Mar 2016

Now, some people actually might have had to worry about radioactive iodine being sucked up into their thyroids: the families (especially kids) living near the Fukushima Daiichi plant. And indeed, kids in the region were screened for thyroid cancer in the years following the disaster. A piece in Science last week walks through the history of this screening, and the lessons it offers are instructive—for any human being who ever requires medical care.

On its face, as Dennis Normile describes, the initial finding from screenings in Japan was super alarming. Almost half (half!) of those screened had nodules or cysts (which can potentially be or become cancerous) on their thyroids.

Nuts, right? And a Japanese epidemiologist named Toshihide Tsuda published a paper in 2015 saying that the rate of thyroid cancer in those Fukushima kids was more than 600 per million—way higher than the 1 to 3 cases per million kids that you would expect. But! As Normile writes, that comparison wasn’t quite fair. The Fukushima survey used advanced ultrasound devices that can detect tiny growths, while the older data came from plain old clinical exams. Oops. You have an apples to oranges thing going on there, in terms of your diagnostic instruments.

Indeed, when other scientists screened kids elsewhere in Japan using the fancy ultrasound devices, rates of cancer were anywhere from 300 to 1,300 per million. What the ultrasound devices find, then, is a whole lot of turtles.

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster -- Thyroid screening program Wikipedia

Consequences of evacuation - Philip Thomas et al study

Fukushima: ten years on from the disaster, was Japan’s response right? William Nuttall, professor of energy, The Open University and Philip Thomas, professor of risk management, University of Bristol; The Conversation; 10 March 2021

A decade on from the tragedy, many people are still mourning the nearly 16,000 people who lost their lives to the tsunami. While no-one died from the radiation after the radiation accident at Fukushima Daiichi, roughly two thousand elderly people died prematurely as a result of their enforced evacuation and undoubtedly many more of the huge number of displaced people experienced distress. In order to minimise suffering in future nuclear accidents, there are important lessons from March 2011 that must be learned.

How should a government react when confronted by clear evidence of radioactive material being released into the environment? We set out to determine how best to respond to a severe nuclear accident using a science-led approach.

It’s difficult to argue for any relocation after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi in Japan, where the calculated loss of life expectancy from staying put in the worst-affected township, Tomioka, would have been three months – less than Londoners are currently losing to air pollution.

Fukushima evacuations were not worth the money, study says WILLIAM HOLLINGWORTH; The Japan Times; 14 Mar 2016 [paywalled]

The costs of evacuating residents from near the Fukushima No. 1 plant and the dislocation the people experienced were greater than their expected gain in longevity, a British study has found.

The researchers found that at best evacuees could expect to live eight months longer, but that some might gain only one extra day of life. They said this does not warrant ripping people from their homes and communities.

The team of experts from four British universities developed a series of tests to examine the relocations after the Fukushima crisis and earlier Chernobyl disaster in 1986.

After a three-year study, the academics have concluded that Japan “overreacted” by relocating 160,000 residents of Fukushima Prefecture, even though radioactive material fell on more than 30,000 sq. km of territory.

“We judged that no one should have been relocated in Fukushima, and it could be argued this was a knee-jerk reaction,” said Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management at Bristol University. “It did more harm than good. An awful lot of disruption has been caused However, this is with hindsight and we are not blaming the authorities.”

The team used a wide range of economic and actuarial data, as well as information from the United Nations and the Japanese government.

Stress and mental health effects

When Radiation Isn’t the Real Risk (NY Times; 21 Sep 2015)

No one has been killed or sickened by the radiation — a point confirmed last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Even among Fukushima workers, the number of additional cancer cases in coming years is expected to be so low as to be undetectable, a blip impossible to discern against the statistical background noise.

But about 1,600 people died from the stress of the evacuation — one that some scientists believe was not justified by the relatively moderate radiation levels at the Japanese nuclear plant.

Fukushima stress deaths top 3/11 toll Japan Times; 20 Feb 2014

FUKUSHIMA – Stress and other illnesses related to the 2011 quake and tsunami had killed 1,656 people in Fukushima Prefecture as of Wednesday, outnumbering the 1,607 whose deaths were directly tied to disaster-caused injuries, according to data compiled by the prefecture and local police.

A prefectural official said many people “have undergone drastic changes in their lives and are still unable to map out their future plans, such as homecoming, causing increased stress on them.”

Fukushima and the Art of Knowing Clare Leppold; Huffington Post; 18 Jun 2016

When trying to evacuate, some were turned away from the homes of their families because radiation was misunderstood as contagious. I am told about the parents of young men, opposing their choice to marry a woman from Fukushima because it is assumed that she will not be able to bear healthy children. Some children themselves believe they will never be able to have healthy offspring in the future, because of what they have heard.

People should be given the freedom to go back to their homes Thoughtscapism; Facebook; 11 Mar 2016

This is madness! People should be given the freedom to go back to their homes - the risk from radiation is way below what nuclear plant staff are safely allowed to be exposed to (20 mSv/year). Some of my Finnish countrymen live with the natural radiation of 7 milliSieverts. There's a brazil beach famed for it's 'healing sands', with radiation levels of 175 mSv per year. Spots of 12 mSv/year in the Fukushima area are just *fine*.

"The radiation has not been the disaster. It's our response to the radiation, our fear that we've projected on to others, to say this is really dangerous. It isn't really dangerous and there are plenty of places in the world where you would live with background radiation of at least this level."

" If I were to stand outside here for 12 hours a day, every day of the year, I would receive an annual extra dose of radiation of around 13 millisieverts."

"...[this is] more than ten times above what the Japanese government has declared "safe" for people to return."

"There are places in Cornwall in the UK where background radiation levels reach 8 millisieverts a year.

The world's highest background radiation rate is found in the city of Ramsar in Iran, which has the astonishing rate of 250 millisieverts a year."

Consequences of nuclear shutdown

Shutting Down All Of Japan’s Nuclear Plants After Fukushima Was A Bad Idea James Conca; Forbes; 31 Oct 2019

By now, more Japanese have died from the closing of Japan's nuclear power plants following the 2011 Tohoku quake than from the tsunami and the earthquake combined, which was about 20,000 people.

Of course, no one has died from any radiation released from the reactor, and no one ever will. There just wasn’t enough dose to anyone.

These conclusions are now echoed across the scientific and medical communities. The latest study, from Matthew Neidell, Shinsuke Uchida and Marcella Veronesi, discusses how after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, when all nuclear power stations ceased operation and nuclear power was replaced by fossil fuels, there was a significant increase in electricity prices and in public mortality.

The increase in price led to a reduction in energy consumption, which caused an increase in mortality during very cold temperatures. An increase in mortality also occurred from the burning of fossil fuels, especially coal, which causes upper respiratory effects. The estimate of these combined mortalities outnumbers the mortality from the tsunami and earthquake themselves, suggesting that the knee-jerk decision to cease nuclear production was a very bad idea.

The immediate urge to shut down all Japanese nuclear reactors after the event was understandable, but Japan only had 15 reactors out of 54 that were at risk of tsunamis. Shutting down these reactors was reasonable in order to determine how to make them more resistant to this particular threat.

The other reactors not at risk should have continued operating during the safety review following the accident, during formation of the new nuclear regulatory authority, and during the development and implementation of the new safety measures.

...

Be Cautious with the Precautionary Principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident Matthew Neidell, Shinsuke Uchida, Marcella Veronesi; IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Oct 2019

This paper provides a large scale, empirical evaluation of unintended effects from invoking the precautionary principle after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. After the accident, all nuclear power stations ceased operation and nuclear power was replaced by fossil fuels, causing an exogenous increase in electricity prices. This increase led to a reduction in energy consumption, which caused an increase in mortality during very cold temperatures. We estimate that the increase in mortality from higher electricity prices outnumbers the mortality from the accident itself, suggesting the decision to cease nuclear production has contributed to more deaths than the accident itself.

Wildlife

"Study shows animal life thriving around Fukushima" by Vicky L. Sutton-Jackson, 6 Jan 2020, University of Georgia

Nearly a decade after the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, researchers from the University of Georgia have found that wildlife populations are abundant in areas void of human life.

The camera study, published in the Journal of Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, reports that over 267,000 wildlife photos recorded more than 20 species, including wild boar, Japanese hare, macaques, pheasant, fox and the raccoon dog—a relative of the fox—in various areas of the landscape.

UGA wildlife biologist James Beasley said speculation and questions have come from both the scientific community and the general public about the status of wildlife years after a nuclear accident like those in Chernobyl and Fukushima.

This recent study, in addition to the team’s research in Chernobyl, provides answers to the questions.

“Our results represent the first evidence that numerous species of wildlife are now abundant throughout the Fukushima Evacuation Zone, despite the presence of radiological contamination,” said Beasley, associate professor at the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory and the Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources.

Species that are often in conflict with humans, particularly wild boar, were predominantly captured on camera in human-evacuated areas or zones, according to Beasley.

“This suggests these species have increased in abundance following the evacuation of people.”

"Rewilding of Fukushima's human evacuation zone" by Phillip C Lyons, Kei Okuda, Matthew T Hamilton, Thomas G Hinton, James C Beasley; 6 Jan 2020 esa journals

Abstract

There is substantial interest in understanding the ecological impacts of the nuclear accidents at the Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants. However, population‐level data for large mammals have been limited, and there remains much speculation regarding the status of wildlife species in these areas. Using a network of remote cameras placed along a gradient of radiological contamination and human presence, we collected data on population‐level impacts to wildlife (that is, abundance and occupancy patterns) following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. We found no evidence of population‐level impacts in mid‐ to large‐sized mammals or gallinaceous birds, and show several species were most abundant in human‐evacuated areas, despite the presence of radiological contamination. These data provide unique evidence of the natural rewilding of the Fukushima landscape following human abandonment, and suggest that if any effects of radiological exposure in mid‐ to large‐sized mammals in the Fukushima Exclusion Zone exist, they occur at individual or molecular scales, and do not appear to manifest in population‐level responses.

Marine effects

Detectable but not hazardous: radioactive marine life of Fukushima Miriam Goldstein; Deep Sea News; 1 Jun 2012

Fukushima Radiation Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Scientists continue to study the effects of radioactive contaminants on the marine environment following the earthquake, tsunamis, and resulting radiation leads from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan.

True facts about Ocean Radiation and the Fukushima Disaster Dr Martini; Deep Sea News; 28 Nov 2013

On March 11th, 2011 the Tōhoku earthquake and resulting tsunami wreaked havoc on Japan. It also resulted in the largest nuclear disaster since Chernobyl when the tsunami damaged the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Radioactive particles were released into the atmosphere and ocean, contaminating groundwater, soil and seawater which effectively closed local Japanese fisheries.

Rather unfortunately, it has also led to some wild speculation on the widespread dangers of Fukushima radiation on the internet.

contains Simpsons guide to radiation and debunks of some scare stories

Misinformation

Radiation at Japan's Fukushima Reactor Is Now at 'Unimaginable' Levels Fox News; 8 Feb 2017

NOAA tsunami wave height graphic, with key showing mapping of colours to wave height

Fukushima Radiation Has Contaminated The Entire Pacific Ocean (And It's Going To Get Worse) zerohedge.com; 21 Feb 2017 (via Internet Archive)

Story using the NOAA tsunami wave height graphic, which hasn't even cropped out the legend showing height mapping to colours

Floats the conspiracy theory that General Electric has managed to suppress reporting on Fukushima for last 5 years

Claims that "Not long after Fukushima, fish in Canada began bleeding from their gills, mouths, and eyeballs" and that "the US and Canadian governments have banned their citizens from talking about Fukushima so “people don’t panic.”" (citing a 2012 BBC News report on the Harper government's media protocol)

Oh, Fukushima Snopes

A chart purportedly showing radioactive water seeping into the ocean from the Fukushima nuclear plant actually depicts something else.


What’s Really Going on at Fukushima? ROBERT HUNZIKER; Counterpunch; 15 Jun 2015

Quotes Helen Caldicott. Also includes claims about Chernobyl, including 1 million deaths.

Whales Continue to Die Off in Pacific Ocean: Scientists Suspect Fukushima Radiation at Fault RealFarmacy

USS Ronald Reagan

7 Years on, Sailors Exposed to Fukushima Radiation Seek Their Day in Court Gregg Levine; The Nation; 9 Mar 2018

Special investigation: US military personnel are sick and dying, and want the nuclear plant’s designers and owners to take responsibility.

Court: Sailors can sue in US over Japanese nuclear disaster The Associated Press; Navy Times; 22 June 2017

SAN FRANCISCO — A federal appeals court says members of the U.S. Navy can pursue their lawsuit in a U.S. court alleging radiation exposure from Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco ruled Thursday that the sailors for now don't have to make their legal claims in Japan. Their lawsuit accuses Tokyo Electric Power Co. and the Japanese government of conspiring to keep secret the extent of the radiation leak following a 2011 earthquake and tsunami that killed thousands of people. The plaintiffs arrived off the coast of Fukushima aboard the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and other vessels to provide humanitarian aid a day after the quake.

Letter from US DoD re Radiation Exposure on USS Ronald Regan

Some sailors who developed cancer and other serious health conditions allege radiation exposures while serving on the USS RONALD REAGAN during Operation Tomodachi may be the cause. There is no objective evidence that the sailors on the USS RONALD REAGAN during Operation Tomodachi experienced radiation exposures that would result in an increase in the expected number of radiogenic diseases over time. The estimated radiation doses for all individuals in the Operation Tomodachi registry, including sailors on the USS RONALD REAGAN, were very small and well below levels associated with adverse medical conditions. A detailed explanation of the data collection, methodologies, analyses, and conclusions are included in the enclosed report.

Judge Tosses Fukushima Radiation Class Action Bianca Bruno; Courthouse News Service; 4 Mar 2019

Hundreds of American sailors who filed two class actions claiming to have suffered physical abnormalities, cancer and death stemming from exposure to radiation while on a humanitarian mission to Fukushima, Japan in 2011 were dealt a blow Monday when their cases were dismissed, paving the way for their claims to be brought in Japan.

U.S. District Judge Janis Sammartino found in a “close call” in two separate orders, class actions brought against Tokyo Electric Power Company, or TEPCO, and General Electric, should be dismissed without prejudice so the service members’ claims could be brought in Japan if they choose to revive them.

Chris Busby

Busby has written for the Russian state propaganda outlet RT.com: Is Fukushima's nuclear nightmare over? Don’t count on it Chris Busby; RT; 12 Mar 2016

and for The Ecologist: No matter what BBC says: Fukushima disaster is killing people Chris Busby; The Ecologist; 14 Mar 2016

Sherman & Mangano

AN UNEXPECTED MORTALITY INCREASE IN THE UNITED STATES FOLLOWS ARRIVAL OF THE RADIOACTIVE PLUME FROM FUKUSHIMA: IS THERE A CORRELATION? Joseph J. Mangano, Janette D. Sherman; International Journal of Health Services; 2012

The multiple nuclear meltdowns at the Fukushima plants beginning on March 11, 2011, are releasing large amounts of airborne radioactivity that has spread throughout Japan and to other nations; thus, studies of contamination and health hazards are merited. In the United States, Fukushima fallout arrived just six days after the earthquake, tsunami, and meltdowns. Some samples of radioactivity in precipitation, air, water, and milk, taken by the U.S. government, showed levels hundreds of times above normal; however, the small number of samples prohibits any credible analysis of temporal trends and spatial comparisons. U.S. health officials report weekly deaths by age in 122 cities, about 25 to 35 percent of the national total. Deaths rose 4.46 percent from 2010 to 2011 in the 14 weeks after the arrival of Japanese fallout, compared with a 2.34 percent increase in the prior 14 weeks. The number of infant deaths after Fukushima rose 1.80 percent, compared with a previous 8.37 percent decrease. Projecting these figures for the entire United States yields 13,983 total deaths and 822 infant deaths in excess of the expected. These preliminary data need to be followed up, especially in the light of similar preliminary U.S. mortality findings for the four months after Chernobyl fallout arrived in 1986, which approximated final figures.

Rebuttals of Sherman & Mangano

Researchers Trumpet Another Flawed Fukushima Death Study Michael Moyer; Scientific American; 20 Dec 2011

In June I wrote about a claim that babies in the U.S. were dying as a direct result of Fukushima radiation. A close look at the accusation revealed that the data used by the authors to make the argument showed no such thing. "That data is publicly available," I wrote, "and a check reveals that the authors’ statistical claims are critically flawed—if not deliberate mistruths." The authors appeared to start from a conclusion—babies are dying because of Fukushima radiation—and work backwards, torturing the data to fit their claims.

Now the authors have published a revised study (PDF) in the International Journal of Health Services. A press release published to herald the article warns, "14,000 U.S. Deaths Tied to Fukushima Fallout." This is an alarming accusation. Let's see how the authors defend it.

First, the authors assert: "In the United States, Fukushima fallout arrived just six days after the earthquake, tsunami, and meltdowns." They provide no evidence for this assertion, no citation to back up their facts. The authors then note that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency monitored radioactivity in milk, water and air in the weeks and months following the disaster. Ah, here must be the data, the careful reader hopes. Alas, "the number of samples for which the EPA was able to detect measurable concentrations of radioactivity is relatively few," the authors write. They then conclude, with evident disappointment, that "clearly, the 2011 EPA reports cannot be used with confidence for any comprehensive assessment of temporal trends and spatial patterns of U.S. environmental radiation levels originating in Japan." In other words, the EPA didn't find evidence for the plume that our entire argument depends on, so "clearly" we can't trust the agency's data.

Yet even if there isn't evidence for a plume, where do all the dead people come from? Here, from the abstract, is the chain of reasoning: "U.S. health officials report weekly deaths by age in 122 cities, about 25 to 35 percent of the national total. Deaths rose 4.46 percent from 2010 to 2011 in the 14 weeks after the arrival of Japanese fallout, compared with a 2.34 percent increase in the prior 14 weeks....Projecting these figures for the entire United States yields 13,983 total deaths." In sum: Sloppy statistics killed 14,000 people.

To unpack a little more, the authors take mortality figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports. I talk a little about these reports in my original piece. Suffice it to say that they are an incomplete record of deaths in the U.S. (as the authors acknowledge). The authors draw a hard line at the week of March 20, 2011, the 12th week of the year. They sum up all deaths around the country for both the 14 weeks preceding and the 14 weeks following March 20, 2011. They do the same for 2010. They find the CDC reports include 4.46 percent more dead people in the 14 weeks after March 20, 2011, than the reports did in the 14 weeks after March 20, 2010. The 14 weeks preceding March 20, 2011 (presumably before the radiation plume arrived and spread across the land) include only 2.34 percent more dead people than the 14 weeks preceding March 20, 2010. Since the CDC only reports on about 23.5 percent of all deaths, the authors claim, they helpfully multiply the supposed "excess" by 1/0.235 to arrive at the final number of 13,893 deaths.

No attempt is made at providing systematic error estimates, or error estimates of any kind. No attempt is made to catalog any biases that may have crept into the analysis, though a cursory look finds biases a-plenty (the authors are anti-nuclear activists unaffiliated with any research institution). The analysis assumes that the plume arrived on U.S. shores, spread everywhere, instantly, and started killing people immediately. It assumes that the "excess" deaths after March 20 are a real signal, not just a statistical aberration, and that every one of them is due to Fukushima radiation.

The publication of such sloppy, agenda-driven work is a shame. Certainly radiation from Fukushima is dangerous, and could very well lead to negative health effects—even across the Pacific. The world needs to have a serious discussion about what role nuclear power should play in a power-hungry post-Fukushima world. But serious, informed, fact-based debate is a difficult enough goal to achieve without having to shout above noise like this.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Michael Moyer is the editor in charge of physics and space coverage at Scientific American. Previously he spent eight years at Popular Science magazine, where he was the articles editor. He was awarded the 2005 American Institute of Physics Science Writing Award for his article "Journey to the 10th Dimension," and has appeared on CBS, ABC, CNN, Fox and the Discovery Channel. He studied physics at the University of California at Berkeley and at Columbia University.

Fukushima: Alarmist Claim? Obscure Medical Journal? Proceed With Caution Barbara Feder Ostrov; University of Southern California Center for Health Journalism blog; 20 Dec 2011

UPDATE: Click here for a response from International Journal of Health Services Editor-in-Chief Vicente Navarro.

The press release trumpeted a startling claim: researchers had linked radioactive fallout from the Fukushima nuclear disaster to 14,000 deaths in the United States, with infants hardest hit.

"This is the first peer-reviewed study published in a medical journal documenting the health hazards of Fukushima," the press release bragged in announcing the study's publication today. The press release, which compared the disaster's impact to Chernobyl, appeared via PR Newswire on mainstream news sites, including the Sacramento Bee and Yahoo! News.

Casual readers who didn't realize this was only a press release could be forgiven for thinking this was a spit-out-your-coffee story. But with a little online research and guidance from veteran health journalists Ivan Oransky and Gary Schwitzer, I quickly learned that there's a lot less to this study and to the medical journal that published it. Read on for their advice on what journalists can learn from this episode.

Normally, reporters are supposed to feel better about research that's been peer-reviewed before publication in a scientific journal. But the claims of the press release were just so outlandish, warning bells went off.

As it turns out, the authors, Joseph Mangano and Janette Sherman, published a version of this study in the political newsletter Counterpunch, where it was quickly criticized. The critics charged that the authors had cherry-picked federal data on infant deaths so they would spike around the time of the Fukushima disaster. Passions over nuclear safety further muddied the debate: both researchers and some critics had activist baggage, with the researchers characterized as anti-nuke and the critics as pro-nuke.

As Scientific American's Michael Moyer writes: "The authors appeared to start from a conclusion-babies are dying because of Fukushima radiation-and work backwards, torturing the data to fit their claims."

So how did such a seemingly flawed study wind up in a peer-reviewed journal?

I researched the journal, the International Journal of Health Services, and its editor, Vicente Navarro. Navarro, a professor at Johns Hopkins University's prestigious school of public health, looked legit, but the journal's "impact factor" (a measure of a research journal's credibility and influence) was less impressive. (I emailed and called Navarro for comment; I'll update this post if I hear back from him.)

I asked Ivan Oransky, executive editor of Reuters Health and co-founder of the Retraction Watch blog, and Health News Review founder Gary Schwitzer: how can journalists better evaluate when to cover (and more importantly, when not to cover) the medical research stories that cross their desks?

Their consensus: just because a study's peer-reviewed doesn't mean it's credible. And evaluating a journal's impact factor can be helpful, but it's not sufficient.

Here's what Oransky had to say:

I do use impact factor to judge journals, while accepting that it's an imperfect measure that is used in all sorts of inappropriate ways (and, for the sake of full disclosure, is a Thomson Scientific product, as in Thomson Reuters). I find it helpful to rank journals within a particular specialty. It's not the only metric I use to figure out what to cover, but if I'm looking at a field with dozens or even more than 100 journals, it's a good first-pass filter. There's competition to publish in journals, which means high-impact journals have much lower acceptance rates. And if citations are any measure at all of whether journals are read, then they're obviously read more, too.

I looked up the journal in question, and it's actually ranked 45th out of 58 in the Health Policy and Services category (in the social sciences rankings) and 59th out of 72 in the Health Care Sciences & Services category (in the science rankings).

As to how this could get published in a peer-reviewed journal, well, not all peer review is created equal. Higher-ranked journals tend to have more thorough peer review. (They also, perhaps not surprisingly, have higher rates of retractions. Whether that's because people push the envelope to publish in them, or there are more eyeballs on them, or there's some other reason, is unclear. But there's no evidence that it's because their peer review is less thorough.)

Finally, I'd refer readers to this great primer on peer review by Maggie Koerth-Baker.

Gary Schwitzer also provided these helpful tips for journalists:

1. Brush up on the writings of John Ioannidis, who has written a great deal in recent years about the flaws in published research.

2. Journalists who live on a steady diet of journal articles almost by definition promote a rose-colored view of progress in research if they don't grasp and convey the publication bias in many journals for positive findings. Negative or null findings may not be viewed as sexy enough. Or they may be squelched prior to submission. While perhaps not a factor in this one case, it nonetheless drives home the point to journalists about the need to critically evaluate studies.

3. In this case, a journalist would be well-served by a friendly local biostatistician's review.

4. It is always more helpful to focus on the quality of the study rather than the impact factor of the journal or the reputation of the researcher (for reasons Ivan articulated). However, these are legitimate questions to ask any published researcher: "Why did you choose to submit your work to that journal? Did you submit it elsewhere and was it rejected? If so, what feedback did you get from the peer reviewers?"

Related Posts:

Fukushima Fallout and Infant Deaths: International Journal of Health Services' Vicente Navarro Responds

In a post JOSEPH MANGANO NEVER STOPS, AND HE NEVER GETS IT RIGHT on the "Nuclear Power Yes Please blog" on 29 Aug 2012, "LANTZELOT" writes:

  • Mangano claims that the total number of deaths in Japan rose with 4.8% during 2011, compared with the "normal" increase of 1.5%. There is no "normal" increase of 1.5%, though for the last 20 years the average increase in the number of deaths (due to an ageing population and decreasing birth rate) has been about 2%. For individual years the increase varies drastically, being above 4% six times since 1990. Thus the 4.8% increase during 2011 is not very spectacular.
  • Out of the about 1.2 million Japanese that die every year the 4.8% increase means an excess of 57,900 deaths compared with 2010. When subtracting the victims of the tsunami and earthquake there is still an excess of 38,700 deaths with no obvious cause. Mangano fails to mention that also in 2010 there was an "excess" of more than 55,000 deaths, compared with the year before. Yes, that is 55,000 excess deaths without a tsunami, without the release of radioactivity, and without alarmistic claims by Mangano.
  • "38,700 deaths with no obvious cause", or "38,700 additional unexplained deaths" is repeated, implying that maybe Fukushima did it. The majority of the deaths are not unexplained, they are classified into about 130 different categories, carefully filed by the MHLW. There is however a category called "Other causes" which include those deaths that can not be classified according to the other categories. For 2011 this category has about 5,000 deaths, which may still sound alarming. It should be noted that this is only 150 more than for 2010, and the variation between different years may be much larger than that. Furthermore, those deaths from "other causes" are not mysterious or due to some death ray directly from Fukushima, they just do not fit into any of the other 130 categories.

Footnotes and references


William T. Vollmann - No Immediate Danger

The Ideology of Fear: William T. Vollmann and Nuclear Power Will Boisvert; Progress and Peril; 9 Apr 2018

Review of No Immediate Danger: Volume One of Carbon Ideologies

Debunking

Are Your Days of Eating Pacific Ocean Fish Really Over? Mike Rothschild; Skeptoid blog; 2 Sep 2013

More Fukushima Scaremongering Debunked Mike Rothschild; Skeptoid blog; 28 Oct 2013

"28 Signs That The West Coast Is Being Absolutely Fried With Nuclear Radiation From Fukushima"

Dire Warnings and Melting Starfish: Fukushima Fearmongering, Volume 3 Mike Rothschild; Skeptoid blog; 25 Nov 2013

  • CLAIM: The ocean is broken.
  • CLAIM: David Suzuki's Dire Warning.
  • CLAIM: Fukushima is as bad as 14,000 Hiroshima bombs.
  • CLAIM: The scary radiation map.
  • CLAIM: Cancer rates are spiking in Fukushima's children.
  • CLAIM: Fukushima radiation is the cause of an epidemic of melting sea stars.

Fukushima Fear, Vol. 4: More Nonsense Than You Can Shake a Giant Squid At Mike Rothschild; Skeptoid blog; 20 Jan 2014

  • CLAIM: OMG! A giant squid beached itself in Santa Monica! Fukushima!
  • CLAIM: Two underground nuclear explosions rocked the Fukushima site on New Year's Eve, forcing Russia's Ministry of Defense to go on high alert — and causing TEPCO to quietly admit that Reactor 3 was melting down. GAME OVER!!!
  • CLAIM: Radioactive steam was seen pouring off Reactor 3, meaning it's in the middle of a meltdown.
  • CLAIM: A dude with a Geiger counter went to a California beach and found radiation levels off the charts! Evacuate the west coast at once!
  • CLAIM: 98% of the Pacific sea floor is covered in dead creatures nuked by Fukushima.
  • CLAIM: A mass die-off of sardines in the Pacific is because of Fukushima radiation.
  • CLAIM: California scientists are going to start monitoring kelp forests, because they know Fukushima radiation is killing us all!
  • CLAIM: The US government bought 14 million potassium iodide doses to protect the wealthy elite from radiation! APOCALYPSE AHOY!

Here's your go-to source for debunking all the Fukushima fables Sarah Keartes; Earth Touch News; 25 Feb 2016

From "mutant" eels to fish "tumours", viral stories linking the Fukushima nuclear disaster to seemingly strange marine events are probably crowding your news feed. And each time one pops up, radiation-related panic spirals ensue.

what you get searching Google images for Fukushima Refutations to Anti-Nuclear Memes; facebook

Onagawa

Onagawa: The Japanese nuclear power plant that didn’t melt down on 3/11

Nuclear is Normal: When Your Local Reactor is the Safest Place in the World Energy For Humanity (via Internet Archive Wayback Machine); 6 Mar 2016

1993. The second boiling water reactor at the Tōhoku Electric Co’s Onagawa nuclear station is completed after a three and a half year build, costing $2.64 billion in today’s US dollars. The site is already elevated and fortified beyond historical tsunami indications, the legacy of a corporate safety culture instilled by vice president Yanosuke Hirai. This diligence pervaded and persisted through the company, driving safety focus and disaster preparedness. A further unit is later constructed beside Onagawa-2. The plant operates well above average Japanese availability factor.

The response of Onagawa to the natural disasters in 2011 has been detailed in the literature by senior personnel, as well as by an independent journalist. All three reactors shut down automatically, as designed, when the quake struck. Workers were quick to organise and get to work ensuring the plant’s safety. Backup power sytems including diesel generators and offsite power lines were safe from the waves and continued to cool the decay heat within the reactor cores. Tsunami damage was limited to a non-safety switchgear fire and auxiliary building flooding.

The safety and electricity at the plant in the midst of unprecedented devastation drew local survivors. Hundreds of people were housed in Onagawa’s gymnasium for three months and provided with warmth and supplies.

Cleanup

Clearing the Radioactive Rubble Heap That Was Fukushima Daiichi, 7 Years On Tim Hornyak; Scientific American; 9 Mar 2018

The water is tainted, the wreckage is dangerous, and disposing of it will be a prolonged, complex and costly process