Difference between revisions of "How fast can we build nuclear?"

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(Created page with "Category:Energy Category:Nuclear A claim often made by opponents of nuclear energy is that it takes too long to build nuclear power stations. How quickly can we build...")
 
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A claim often made by opponents of nuclear energy is that it takes too long to build nuclear power stations. How quickly can we build them, and  
 
A claim often made by opponents of nuclear energy is that it takes too long to build nuclear power stations. How quickly can we build them, and  
[[How fast can we build clean energy? | how does the speed of building nuclear compare with how fast we can build wind and solar?]]
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how does the speed of building nuclear compare with how fast we can build wind and solar?  
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The second question is addressed in [[How fast can we build clean energy?]]
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== How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant? ==
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In a blog article<ref> Euan Mearns, "How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant?" ([http://euanmearns.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-power-plant/ Energy Matters] 27 Jul 2016)</ref>, Euan Mearns examines data for 441 reactors, finding that
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* 374 out of 441 reactors were built in 10 or less than 10 years. There is a tail of 15% that have taken longer to build.
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* 18 reactors were completed in 3 years! 12 of those in Japan, 3 in the USA, 2 in Russia and 1 in Switzerland. These are a mixture of boiling water and pressurised water reactors.
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* The mean construction time of 441 reactors in use today was 7.5 years.
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A peer-reveiwed (but paywalled) statistical analysis of the construction duration of nuclear power plants, by Paul W.Thurner et al<ref>Paul W.Thurner et al, "How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant? A non-parametric event history approach with P-splines" ([https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514001621 Energy Policy], July 2014)</ref>, finds that "time of connection to grid increases over the years indicating increased societal sensibilities, respect for higher security standards, and increased project complexities".
  
 
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300106 Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors] Jessica R.Lovering et al; Energy Policy; Apr 2016
 
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300106 Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors] Jessica R.Lovering et al; Energy Policy; Apr 2016
 
: The existing literature on the construction costs of nuclear power reactors has focused almost exclusively on trends in construction costs in only two countries, the United States and France, and during two decades, the 1970s and 1980s. These analyses, Koomey and Hultman (2007); Grubler (2010), and Escobar-Rangel and Lévêque (2015), study only 26% of reactors built globally between 1960 and 2010, providing an incomplete picture of the economic evolution of nuclear power construction. This study curates historical reactor-specific overnight construction cost (OCC) data that broaden the scope of study substantially, covering the full cost history for 349 reactors in the US, France, Canada, West Germany, Japan, India, and South Korea, encompassing 58% of all reactors built globally. We find that trends in costs have varied significantly in magnitude and in structure by era, country, and experience. In contrast to the rapid cost escalation that characterized nuclear construction in the United States, we find evidence of much milder cost escalation in many countries, including absolute cost declines in some countries and specific eras. Our new findings suggest that there is no inherent cost escalation trend associated with nuclear technology.
 
: The existing literature on the construction costs of nuclear power reactors has focused almost exclusively on trends in construction costs in only two countries, the United States and France, and during two decades, the 1970s and 1980s. These analyses, Koomey and Hultman (2007); Grubler (2010), and Escobar-Rangel and Lévêque (2015), study only 26% of reactors built globally between 1960 and 2010, providing an incomplete picture of the economic evolution of nuclear power construction. This study curates historical reactor-specific overnight construction cost (OCC) data that broaden the scope of study substantially, covering the full cost history for 349 reactors in the US, France, Canada, West Germany, Japan, India, and South Korea, encompassing 58% of all reactors built globally. We find that trends in costs have varied significantly in magnitude and in structure by era, country, and experience. In contrast to the rapid cost escalation that characterized nuclear construction in the United States, we find evidence of much milder cost escalation in many countries, including absolute cost declines in some countries and specific eras. Our new findings suggest that there is no inherent cost escalation trend associated with nuclear technology.
  
[http://euanmearns.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-power-plant/ How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant?] Euan Mearns; Energy Matters; 27 Jul 2016
 
: 374 out of 441 reactors were built in 10 or less than 10 years. There is a tail of 15% that have taken longer to build.
 
 
: 18 reactors were completed in 3 years! 12 of those in Japan, 3 in the USA, 2 in Russia and 1 in Switzerland. These are a mixture of boiling water and pressurised water reactors.
 
  
: The mean construction time of 441 reactors in use today was 7.5 years.
 
  
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514001621 How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant? A non-parametric event history approach with P-splines] Paul W.Thurner et al; Energy Policy; July 2014
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<references/>
: Governments deciding to use nuclear energy as part of their country׳s energy mix are faced with long-term planning efforts and huge investments. As nuclear power plants constitute one of the socially and politically most contested technologies, the question arises, which time horizons companies as well as politicians have to consider for the accomplishment and grid-connection of individual and whole fleets of reactors. Unfortunately, there are no large-N studies investigating the time for completion of such large-scale projects. For the first time, we statistically explain the duration of the construction of all initiated nuclear plant projects so far. Based on the International Atomic Energy׳s comprehensive Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) we assess the impact of demographic, economic, and political preconditions of a country, at the same time accounting for different types of reactor technologies. To account for non-linear relationships, we apply non-parametric survival models with P-splines. A main result of our analysis is that time of connection to grid increases over the years indicating increased societal sensibilities, respect for higher security standards, and increased project complexities. The Harrisburg and the Chernobyl disaster did not induce a separate additional delaying effect.
 

Revision as of 13:26, 8 November 2019


A claim often made by opponents of nuclear energy is that it takes too long to build nuclear power stations. How quickly can we build them, and how does the speed of building nuclear compare with how fast we can build wind and solar?

The second question is addressed in How fast can we build clean energy?

How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant?

In a blog article[1], Euan Mearns examines data for 441 reactors, finding that

  • 374 out of 441 reactors were built in 10 or less than 10 years. There is a tail of 15% that have taken longer to build.
  • 18 reactors were completed in 3 years! 12 of those in Japan, 3 in the USA, 2 in Russia and 1 in Switzerland. These are a mixture of boiling water and pressurised water reactors.
  • The mean construction time of 441 reactors in use today was 7.5 years.

A peer-reveiwed (but paywalled) statistical analysis of the construction duration of nuclear power plants, by Paul W.Thurner et al[2], finds that "time of connection to grid increases over the years indicating increased societal sensibilities, respect for higher security standards, and increased project complexities".

Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors Jessica R.Lovering et al; Energy Policy; Apr 2016

The existing literature on the construction costs of nuclear power reactors has focused almost exclusively on trends in construction costs in only two countries, the United States and France, and during two decades, the 1970s and 1980s. These analyses, Koomey and Hultman (2007); Grubler (2010), and Escobar-Rangel and Lévêque (2015), study only 26% of reactors built globally between 1960 and 2010, providing an incomplete picture of the economic evolution of nuclear power construction. This study curates historical reactor-specific overnight construction cost (OCC) data that broaden the scope of study substantially, covering the full cost history for 349 reactors in the US, France, Canada, West Germany, Japan, India, and South Korea, encompassing 58% of all reactors built globally. We find that trends in costs have varied significantly in magnitude and in structure by era, country, and experience. In contrast to the rapid cost escalation that characterized nuclear construction in the United States, we find evidence of much milder cost escalation in many countries, including absolute cost declines in some countries and specific eras. Our new findings suggest that there is no inherent cost escalation trend associated with nuclear technology.


  1. Euan Mearns, "How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant?" (Energy Matters 27 Jul 2016)
  2. Paul W.Thurner et al, "How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant? A non-parametric event history approach with P-splines" (Energy Policy, July 2014)